PREMIUM
Ross’ Thursday NCAA Tourney 4-Unit Top Play
(NCAAB) Illinois vs. Iowa State,
03/28/2024 10:09 PM, Score: 72 - 69
Point Spread: 1.50 | -106.00 Illinois (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 1.50 | -106.00 Illinois (Away)
Result: Win
Illinois vs. Iowa State 10:10 PM ET
Game# 631-632
Play On: Illinois +1.5
Illinois is #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and Iowa State is #1 defensively. So, something must be given. The overused cliche is defense wins championships and there’s data to back up that statement. However, this is an exception to the rule in my mind. The Cyclones are just 69% from the free throw line and that’s a concern when you get this far in the NCAA Tournament and are involved in what is seemingly an even matchup such as this one. Additionally, as good as Iowa State is defensively, they allow opponents to get to the free throw line frequently and rank #230 nationally in the category. Illinois is a solid free throw shooting team at 74.2% and is in the top 20% of college basketball teams when it comes to free throw attempts. Iowa State is one of the best teams in the country when it relates to forcing turnovers. Nevertheless, Illinois has committed turnovers on just 15% of their offensive possessions this season which is very good.
I very seldom refer to players when giving my handicapping analysis. However, Illinois guard Terrance Shannon will be unequivocally the best player on the floor tonight. He’s not only a deadly 3-point shooter but can beat defenders off the dribble and gets fouled quite frequently when doing so. Since the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Shannon is averaging 31.6 points per game, made 41.7% of his 3-point shot attempts, and has a excellent 87.9% conversion rate on free throws. Keep in mind, this is the same Terrance Shannon Jr. that was a key contributor as a freshman on a Texas Tech team that lost the 2020 national championship team in overtime. Give me Illinois.
Game# 631-632
Play On: Illinois +1.5
Illinois is #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and Iowa State is #1 defensively. So, something must be given. The overused cliche is defense wins championships and there’s data to back up that statement. However, this is an exception to the rule in my mind. The Cyclones are just 69% from the free throw line and that’s a concern when you get this far in the NCAA Tournament and are involved in what is seemingly an even matchup such as this one. Additionally, as good as Iowa State is defensively, they allow opponents to get to the free throw line frequently and rank #230 nationally in the category. Illinois is a solid free throw shooting team at 74.2% and is in the top 20% of college basketball teams when it comes to free throw attempts. Iowa State is one of the best teams in the country when it relates to forcing turnovers. Nevertheless, Illinois has committed turnovers on just 15% of their offensive possessions this season which is very good.
I very seldom refer to players when giving my handicapping analysis. However, Illinois guard Terrance Shannon will be unequivocally the best player on the floor tonight. He’s not only a deadly 3-point shooter but can beat defenders off the dribble and gets fouled quite frequently when doing so. Since the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Shannon is averaging 31.6 points per game, made 41.7% of his 3-point shot attempts, and has a excellent 87.9% conversion rate on free throws. Keep in mind, this is the same Terrance Shannon Jr. that was a key contributor as a freshman on a Texas Tech team that lost the 2020 national championship team in overtime. Give me Illinois.
