#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke - the points over NC State, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We were wrong on Duke Friday night as we thought Houston would really limit them offensively which they did with the Devils scoring only 54 points. Problem was, Houston lost their top offensive player and one of the best guards in the nation, Jamal Shead, to an injury in the first half and they could get nothing going offensively after that. We pretty confident that injury cost the Cougars the game (lost 54-51). Either way, we’re now getting solid line value with Duke in this spot vs a team they’ve faced twice this season. Just 2 weeks ago in the ACC tourney, the Blue Devils were an 11 point favorite vs this NC State team and now they are laying only 6.5 on a neutral court. When the faced off @ NC State the number was the same as it is here with Duke as a 6 to 6.5 point true road favorite. The 2 teams split their games with Duke winning at NCSU by 15 and then losing by 5 in the ACC tournament. In their loss 2 weeks ago, Duke shot just 5 of 20 from deep (25%) while the Wolfpack hit 44% of their 3’s which was the difference in the game. Duke is the much better offense and better shooting team by quite a wide margin (13th best 3 points shooting team in the country / NCSU is 134th) so we expect those tables to turn here. In the 2 games Duke outrebounded NC State in both and had fewer turnovers in the 2 games combined. If the shooting gets back to form where the Blue Devils should hold a decent edge, they should cover this number. NC State is a bit fortunate to be here as Marquette was a terrible 4 of 31 (13%) from 3 point land with the majority being wide open looks. Just a bad shooting night for the Golden Eagles. Defensively they held the Pack to under 1.00 PPP but just couldn’t make an open shot. Speaking of 3 point variance, in their 3 NCAA tourney games, Wolfpack opponents (Texas Tech, Oakland, and Marquette) have combined to make only 23 of 97 shots from deep (23.7%). That’s against an NCSU defense that ranks 280th defending the arc. We anticipate the Devils drastically improving those numbers on Sunday. Duke gets a shot at some fairly quick revenge here and NC State is now officially overvalued on their 8 game winning streak. Lay it with Duke.