Pac-12 Game of the Week CFB
(NCAAF) USC vs. Oregon, 11/11/2023 10:30 PM, Score: 27 - 36
Point Spread: -15.00 | -108.00 Oregon (Home)
Result: Loss
#186 ASA PLAY ON 8* Oregon -15 over USC, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - USC’s mental state has to be in question entering this game. They had goals of getting to the College FB Playoff and winning the Pac 12. Their playoff hopes were dashed a few weeks ago with their 2nd loss of the season and last week their 52-42 home loss vs Washington ended their Pac 12 hopes. This team is in a prime position now to get rolled by Oregon who we feel is the best team in the conference and one of the top few teams in the country. We expect the Oregon offense to pretty much do whatever they want in this game vs a terrible USC defense. In their last 6 games, the Trojan defense has allowed 40+ points 5 times and the only team that didn’t get there was Utah whose offense ranks 93rd nationally and the Utes still got to 34 points. The Ducks lead the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and we have no doubt they’ll top 50 here and we wouldn’t be surprised if they put up a 60 burger. Last week Oregon rolled vs Cal 63-19 while USC was giving up 52 points to Washington. The Ducks offense has been unstoppable ranking #2 nationally in total offense, #3 in YPP, #1 in YPC, #4 in passing yards, #1 in completion percentage and the list goes on. This USC has struggled vs everyone they’ve faced this season and now they are taking the road to play the BEST offense they’ve seen this year. Oregon is obviously a tough place to play and the Ducks are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in Eugene this year with an average margin of victory sitting at a ridiculous +42 points. That’s not their home point differential for the season folks, that’s their average winning margin at home! USC can score points but the difference here is Oregon actually has a very solid defense. They rank in the top 20 in scoring defense, total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense. The Trojans have faced only 2 other defenses this year that rank in the top 30 and in those games vs Notre Dame & Utah, they scored 20 and 24 offensive points (minus defensive and special teams scores) and that won’t get close to getting it done in this game. These 2 teams have both played Cal & Utah within the last 3 weeks and Oregon won those games 63-19 and 35-6 respectively while USC came from 14 points down in the 4th quarter to beat Cal 50-49 and lost at home to Utah 34-32. Add in USC’s potential fragile mindset and this should be an easy Oregon win.