#127 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami FL +14.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We think Miami will give FSU all they can handle here so we’re grabbing the hefty points. We’re getting some nice value here with the Canes coming off a loss @ NC State as nearly a TD favorite. Perhaps they were peaking ahead to this huge revenge game after getting walloped by FSU last season. Miami outgained NC State both on the ground and through the air in that loss but had 4 turnovers, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs at the NCSU 3 yard line. Miami is still a very solid 6-3 on the season with high level wins over Texas A&M & Clemson. The undefeated Seminoles have been on cruise control but they’ve faced only ONE opponent with a current winning record since coming from behind to beat Clemson in OT in late September. That opponent was Duke who has a winning record but is struggling big time (lost 3 of their last 5) with QB Leonard not 100%. These 2 teams have played very similar strength of schedules and their overall key stats are actually pretty close despite FSU being undefeated. Miami is +128 YPG with a +1.5 YPP differential and FSU’s numbers are +126 and +1.8. Miami is 10-3 ATS as an underdog in this series and the last 8 times they’ve been a dog on the road vs FSU, the Canes have covered 7 times. Since 1997, only twice as Florida State been favored by more than a 2 TDs vs their in state rival Miami. This is too high and there is nothing Miami would like better than to end their arch rivals run at the College FB Playoff. They’ll be more than ready here and we expect a tight game throughout. Take the points.