#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -1.5 or -125 money line over Miami, Sunday at 9:30 AM – Game being played in Germany - Huge game with playoff implications in Germany on Sunday morning. These 2 teams currently are sitting in the #1 and #2 playoff spots in the AFC and this game could go a long way to deciding home field advantage. Both teams are 6-2 on the year but we like KC in this one coming off a rare loss. The Chiefs were rolled at division rival Denver last Sunday 24-9, however they outgained the Broncos by more than 1.0 YPP but had 5 turnovers in the game on 11 total drives. That isn’t going to get you a win in the NFL. On top of that, QB Mahomes had an illness and nearly didn’t play so he was nowhere near 100%. Now we get KC off an embarrassing performance and they are a very good bounce back team under Andy Reid. In fact, in his head coaching career, Reid’s teams are 21-10 ATS (22-9 SU) as a favorite of 7 or fewer points off a loss. Miami has beaten a bunch of bottom tier NFL teams so far this season (Giants, Patriots (twice), Panthers, etc…) but the 2 good teams they’ve faced have beat the Fins handily. The Bills rolled this team by 28 points and the Eagles topped them by 14. They rank #1 DVOA offensively, which isn’t surprising, but their defense and special teams both rank outside the top 20 DVOA. Speaking of DVOA, the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that ranks inside the top 5 in overall, offense, defense, and special teams. KC has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 2020 season and we don’t see that happening here. With this line set under a FG, we like the Chiefs on Sunday in Germany.