NL Central Game of the Month MLB 10*
(MLB) Milwaukee vs. Cincinnati, 07/14/2023 7:10 PM, Score: 1 - 0
Money Line: -115.00 Milwaukee (Away)
Result: Win
#957 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -115 or -120 over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:10 PM ET -  Action on pitchers.  This is a big game right of the gate in the Central Division as the 2nd half of the season gets underway post-All Star Break.  We like the Brewers here as they have won 6 of last 8 road games and are taking on a divisional foe that has lost 3 of 5 home games and has not been great at home this season.  In fact, the Reds 23-21 record at home is no better than the Brewers road record which is also 23-21.  Each club has played 26 divisional games and Milwaukee is 17-9 in divisional action while Cincinnati is 12-14 in divisional games.  All of the above supports a value play on the Brewers here and that is before even analyzing the expected pitching match-up here which is Corbin Burnes (with a big edge) against Graham Ashcraft.  Note that Burnes is 6-4 with a 3.44 ERA in night games and opponents hitting just .202 against him under the lights.  Ashcraft, on the other hand, is 2-5 with a 7.95 ERA in his home starts this season and opponents hitting .297 against him in his home ballpark.  Though Ashcraft had a good start in his only outing so far in July, let us not forget that he got completely steamrolled with a combined 1-6 record in his 10 starts in May/June and a very ugly ERA of 9.66 over the starts spanning those two most recent months.  Burnes has been great in both starts against the Reds this season while Ashcraft got destroyed in his only start against Milwaukee this season.  The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at a nearly pick'em price range of -115 to -120.