#976 ASA PLAY ON 8* New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Phillies are 0-3 to start the season and off a 1-run loss down in Texas last night.  The first two defeats this season were blowout losses and this is tough spot for Philly as they had the Sunday night game down in Texas yesterday and then had to travel back to the Northeast for this one and lose an hour on the clock in the process.  The Phillies are a shell of last year's team right now with Bryce Harper still out and Rhys Hoskins lost for the season.  Those are two very big bats and the Phillies have scored just 4 runs total the last two games and now face a tough Yankees southpaw.  They have very little experience with facing Nestor Cortes and what little they have has not been good.  Conversely, the Yankees are quite familiar with Phillies starter Taijuan Walker.  That's because he is a former Met and would face them annually in the Subway Series.  They have a number of hitters that have pounded him and also he has been taken deep often in his starts versus the Yankees.  Our computer math models project Walker gets hit hard and Cortes throws a gem.  No matter the pitchers here, we like the powerful and healthier Yankees over a Phillies team struggling out of the gate.  No team has a worse run differential than the Phillies -18 and also Philadelphia's 29 runs allowed is the worst mark in the majors and, keep in mind, 10 teams have already played 4 games this season and yet Phillies runs allowed worst of anyone in baseball.  There have not been a lot of one-run games (22%) so far this season and the money line is a little too heavy on this one for our liking so we'll turn to the run line and look to cash some plus money on a New York blowout.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +125 money range with the Yankees.  Lay it!