#713 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UCF +3.5 over Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - One thing we know for sure is UCF is jacked for this game. They haven’t faced the state big boy since the 2012/13 season and the motivated Knights are good enough to pull the upset here. Central Florida had a disappointing season finishing 8-10 in the AAC despite ranking as the 4th best team per KenPom behind only Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati. This team is better than their overall 18-14 record would indicate. Their adjusted efficiency margin was +12.6 points per 100 possessions which would indicate their record should be better than it is. They are solid on both ends of the court ranking in the top 90 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Golden Knights also play a very slow pace (319th in adjusted tempo) which could be a problem for the Gators who like to play fast. We would anticipate UCF slowing this game down giving them the best chance to win. Florida had much higher expectations entering the season and really played worse as the year progressed. They started the season ranked 35th by KenPom and ended the year ranked outside the top 60. The closed the season losing 7 of their last 10 games with their only wins coming vs Ole Miss, UGA, and LSU, 3 of the 4 SEC teams ranked outside the top 100. They really struggled after losing leading scorer & rebounder Colin Castleton in late February winning 2 of 8 games without him in the line up and he remains out. We’re not so sure that this Florida team is all that excited to be in the NIT this season. Both defenses are very solid holding opponents to less than 0.98 PPP. Offensively, UCF is the better shooting team. The Knights have the better offensive efficiency numbers, they make 36% of their triples (83rd nationally compared to Florida who ranks 291st in that statistic) and they make 77% of their FT’s. When facing the best teams in the AAC, the Knights played well losing to NCAA #1 seed Houston by 6 & 11 points while beating Memphis the first meeting and then getting nipped by 2 and 5 points in their other 2 vs the Tigers. In the non-conference this team nearly beat Miami FL (lost by 2) and Missouri (lost by 2). We like their chances here at the upset and we’ll take the points.