ASA play 8* on: #162 Memphis +3 over Mississippi State, 4PM ET - The play here is on the home team Tigers in what we expect to be a mild upset and outright win for Memphis. We’ll gladly grab the points! Memphis has one of the best offenses in college football averaging 680 yards per game which ranks them 2nd in the nation. That is obviously not a fluke either as they averaged over 400YPG a season ago which was 28th best. The Tigers high scoring offense is averaging 55PPG this season and has averaged over 36PPG going back three full seasons. Last week the Tigers jumped out to a big lead against Arkansas State before the Red Wolves scored three Touchdowns in the 4th quarter to make it respectable. In other words, we don’t feel the Tigers defense is as bad as the 50-points they allowed last week to Arkansas State. The Wolves offense averaged over 31PPG a year ago and were 14th in total yards per game. Mississippi State is coming off a big win over NC State and have a huge game looming on deck versus LSU. While the Bulldogs are looking ahead to that game, the Tigers are focused on a huge home game versus an SEC opponent. Last week the Bulldogs returned the opening kick for a TD but were unimpressive after that, getting outgained by NC State but still winning. Since 2018 Memphis is 20-1 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 18.5PPG. They’ve also been a home dog just three times in that span and are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS in those games. Mississippi State finds themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a road favorite with this being the 6th time since 2018 in that role. Miss State is just 1-7 ATS their last 8 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Grab the points with Memphis here.