PREMIUM
ASA's 10* MLB Run Line
(MLB) LA Dodgers vs. Atlanta,
10/14/2020 6:05 PM, Score: 15 - 3
Point Spread: -1.50 | -116.00 LA Dodgers (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: -1.50 | -116.00 LA Dodgers (Away)
Result: Win
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 6:05 PM ET
The Braves pounded out 10 hits yesterday but 7 of them came from Freeman, Markakis, and Albies. Why does that matter? We are aware that Albies has had amazing success in his 4 at bats versus lefties in this post-season but he is a switch-hitter that hit only .214 against lefties in the regular season. As for Freeman and Markakis, they are both left-handed batters. The starter for the Dodgers this evening is Julio Urias and the southpaw held lefties to a .137 batting average in the regular season this year and a .198 batting average in the 2019 regular season. Urias is also a guy with a lot of post-season experience and he was great against the Braves in the regular season last year. In terms of post-season experience, Urias is now 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last 18 innings spanning the last 3 playoff years combined! He rates a huge edge over the Braves Kyle Wright in this one. Yes, Wright was successful in his first-ever playoff start but it came against the Marlins in the divisional round. Wright was in major trouble in the early innings but managed to escape the jams each time. He gave up a lot of hard-hit outs. Not only did Wright benefit from some luck and some solid defense, his Braves teammates then staked him to an early big lead and it is much easier to pitch when you have a 4-run (or more!) lead for sure. That said, Wright will quickly be brought back down to earth by this Dodgers lineup that nearly rallied for the huge comeback win against the Braves bullpen late in yesterday's game. Do not lose sight of the fact that Wright is 2-7 with a 6.22 ERA in his MLB career and that includes his 19 regular season appearances (12 starts). This is a very tough spot for him and it is why the Dodgers are such a big money line favorite here as they look to respond in this 0-2 series hole! Look for them to do just that and, per our computer math model, Los Angeles wins this one by multiple runs and the value play (-120 range) is with laying the 1.5 runs on the run line in this one. The Dodgers haven't lost 3 straight games since August of 2019! Since that time LA has gone 5-0 when entering a game on a losing streak of 2 games and only 1 of the 5 wins came by less than a 2-run margin. In fact, the Dodgers 43 wins this year in the regular season featured 36 (or 84%) by a margin of 2 or more runs! They have continued that 80% trend in the post-season as 4 of their 5 wins have come by at least 2 runs in these playoffs. For the Braves, 19 of their 25 losses (76%) in the regular season came by 2 or more runs. Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday.
The Braves pounded out 10 hits yesterday but 7 of them came from Freeman, Markakis, and Albies. Why does that matter? We are aware that Albies has had amazing success in his 4 at bats versus lefties in this post-season but he is a switch-hitter that hit only .214 against lefties in the regular season. As for Freeman and Markakis, they are both left-handed batters. The starter for the Dodgers this evening is Julio Urias and the southpaw held lefties to a .137 batting average in the regular season this year and a .198 batting average in the 2019 regular season. Urias is also a guy with a lot of post-season experience and he was great against the Braves in the regular season last year. In terms of post-season experience, Urias is now 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last 18 innings spanning the last 3 playoff years combined! He rates a huge edge over the Braves Kyle Wright in this one. Yes, Wright was successful in his first-ever playoff start but it came against the Marlins in the divisional round. Wright was in major trouble in the early innings but managed to escape the jams each time. He gave up a lot of hard-hit outs. Not only did Wright benefit from some luck and some solid defense, his Braves teammates then staked him to an early big lead and it is much easier to pitch when you have a 4-run (or more!) lead for sure. That said, Wright will quickly be brought back down to earth by this Dodgers lineup that nearly rallied for the huge comeback win against the Braves bullpen late in yesterday's game. Do not lose sight of the fact that Wright is 2-7 with a 6.22 ERA in his MLB career and that includes his 19 regular season appearances (12 starts). This is a very tough spot for him and it is why the Dodgers are such a big money line favorite here as they look to respond in this 0-2 series hole! Look for them to do just that and, per our computer math model, Los Angeles wins this one by multiple runs and the value play (-120 range) is with laying the 1.5 runs on the run line in this one. The Dodgers haven't lost 3 straight games since August of 2019! Since that time LA has gone 5-0 when entering a game on a losing streak of 2 games and only 1 of the 5 wins came by less than a 2-run margin. In fact, the Dodgers 43 wins this year in the regular season featured 36 (or 84%) by a margin of 2 or more runs! They have continued that 80% trend in the post-season as 4 of their 5 wins have come by at least 2 runs in these playoffs. For the Braves, 19 of their 25 losses (76%) in the regular season came by 2 or more runs. Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday.
