ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET

Yesterday's game saw the teams combine for 23 hits but there were 5 double plays in the game and it totaled only 7 runs. The prior game between these teams on Friday totaled 14 runs. That was preceded by the following run totals in the Rockies 3 preceding home games: 18, 19, 16. The weather in Denver this afternoon will be very warm and very dry and the conditions are perfect for the ball to be jumping off the bat and carrying very well at Coors Field. Per our computer math model, a run total in the range of the 17 runs that the Rockies 4 preceding home games averaged is what is expected here this afternoon. Chris Paddack gets the start for San Diego in this one. He has not been himself this season and opponents are hitting .303 with a .797 slugging percentage against his fastball. That, in and of itself, is a problem for Paddack. Adding to the concern for him here is the fact that he has been hit hard on the road this season plus now makes his first ever start at Colorado. Coors Field has been known to be a bit of a "house of horrors" for young pitchers when they make their first appearance there and this outing is likely to go no differently with the poor recent form of Paddack. As for Rockies starter Ryan Castellani, like most Colorado pitchers he is much better on the road than at home. In his most recent home start he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Castellani only struck out 1 in that game and the rookie right-hander has given up a pair of homers in each of his last two starts overall. He is facing a Padres team that has a .479 slugging percentage on the season. That is the #1 ranked slugging percentage in the National League. Prior to yesterday's loss, San Diego had won 9 of its last 11 games and scored an average of 8.4 runs per game in those 9 victories. Look for an 9-8 type game in this one as it flies over the total. Bet the OVER in Colorado in afternoon action Sunday.