The set-up: Jon Lester won his 16th game of the season 2-0 over the Astros Friday night but the stage was set for a rubber match to this series on Sunday night with the Astros' 2-1 win on Saturday afternoon. Houston's win snapped a three-game skid and leaves them 75-67, 2 1/2 games back of the AL's second wild card, a race which still includes SEVEN teams! The 90-51 Cubs own a huge 15-game lead over the Cards in the NL Central plus own a 6 1/2 game lead over the Nationals for the NL's top record.

The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (16-6, 2.84 ERA) looks for win No. 17 in tonight's game, up against Houston's Mike Fiers (10-6, 4.29 ERA). Arrieta took a tough loss last time out against San Francisco, allowing three runs (two earned) over six innings in a 3-2 setback. However, last year's Cy Young winner has just two quality starts over his last five outings and has issued 17 walks in 31 2/3 innings over that span. Fiers hasn't pitched all that well in his last two starts, allowing 15 hits over just 10 innings but has somehow allowed only five runs (just three have been earned).

The pick: Arrieta will be making his first career appearance against the Astros and excluding the Cubs, Houston is the only team Arrieta has yet to face in his career. As for Fiers, he's 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA in five games (four starts) all-time against the Cubs. However, expecting a third straight 2-0 or 2-1 game is a stretch. Note that prior to Arrieta's last outing vs. the Giants, his previous four starts had averaged 13.25 RPG. As for Fiers? His last three starts have seen an average of 14.33 runs scored. The Over is a 10*!