Rogers' *10* Sunday Night SURE SHOT
(NFL) New England vs. Arizona, 09/11/2016 4:30 PM, Score: 23 - 21
Total: 45.00 | -110.00 Over
Result: Win
New England: Obviously, the biggest storyline of this year's opening SNF game is third-year QB Jimmy Garoppolo making his first career NFL start. Garoppolo was selected in the second round out of Eastern Illinois in 2014 but has attempted a modest 31 regular-season passes since being selected, spending spent the bulk of the last two seasons learning in the ‘classroom' and on the practice field, backing up future HOF Tom Brady. However, Brady's four-game suspension has thrust Garoppolo into the spotlight as he takes the reins for the Pats in tonight's game against the Arizona Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium. "There's so much going on right now," Garoppolo said. "Mentally, I'm straight on Arizona, but it is a phenomenal opportunity. This is why you play the game. You play to be in the game and play; you don't want to be the backup. The opportunity is here. I've just got to go take advantage of it."

Arizona: Garoppolo's opposite number will be Carson Palmer, who established franchise records for TD passes (35), yards (4,671) and QB rating (104.6) in leading the Cards to a 13-3 regular season record. After a closer-than-expected win over the Packers in the division round, the Cards and Palmer in particular, unraveled in the NFC conference championship game at Carolina in a 49-15 loss (he accounted for all six of the Cards' turnovers / 4 INTs & 2 fumbles). The Cards are poised for another big year though, as Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and speedster John Brown give Palmer an outstanding receiving corps plus second-year RB David Johnson now opens the season as the starter after scoring 13 TDs as a rookie, playing superbly down the stretch when Chris Johnson suffered a broken leg. The Arizona defense finished fifth in total yards allowed, sixth in rushing yards allowed and eighth in passing yards allowed last season.

The pick: New England is the only team in league history to win division titles in 12 of the past 13 seasons (all with Brady at the helm) and are favored to win the AFC East again in 2016, even with Brady missing the first four games. Arizona returns all of its key players on an offense that led the NFL with 408.3 YPG. Arizona (30.6 PPG) and New England (29.1 PPG) ranked second and third, respectively in scoring in 2015 but don't expect a high scoring contest in this one. Belichick's track record with time to prepare for an opponent (especially one not familiar with competing against the Pats) speaks for itself. Also, it should be expected that the Pats' offense will play it much closer to the vest in Garoppolo's first-ever start (with Gronk out and in primetime, no less!). The Under is a 10* play.