The set-up: The Red Sox opened a two-game lead over the Blue Jays Friday with a 13-3 romp at Rogers Centre, as Rick Porcello earned his 20th win, becoming the first (and maybe only pitcher?) to reach that plateau in 2016. The Red Sox can make sure they will return home with the AL East lead by winning at least one more game at Rogers Centre Saturday or Sunday. When Boston returns to Fenway on Monday, the Red Sox will host the Orioles for a three-game series. Baltimore lost 4-3 on Friday and is now three games behind the Red Sox. Toronto opened the month of September with a 31-23 mark against AL East foes in 2016, after ending August by winning five of six to maintain a two-game edge over Boston. However, the Blue Jays began September 1-5 against Tampa Bay and the NY Yankees to give up the division lead.

The pitching matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez (2-6, 4.83 ERA) will start for Boston on Saturday afternoon, opposed by Toronto's J.A. Happ (17-4, 3.34 ERA). Rodriguez has allowed three or less ERs in eight of nine starts since the All Star break but despite a 2.73 ERA in that span, has earned just one win against three losses (team is just 3-6). Toronto's Happ, much like Boston's Porcello, has been one of 2016's surprising breakout pitching stars. Happ's best previous season was when he went 12-4 back in 2009 for the Phillies. However, one wonders if Toronto is troubled by the fact that Happ is just 1-1 with a 5.91 ERA over his last four trips to the mound (Jays are 2-2), after going 16-3 with a 2.96 mark in his first 23 starts of 2016 (Jays were 18-5).

The pick: Boston has averaged 9.6 runs in its eight victories over the last 12 games but just 2.0 runs in its four losses. I look for Happ, like Porcello last night, to rise to the challenge and for Boston's Rodriguez to fall victim to a lack of support once again (see above for details). Toronto is an 8* play.