The set-up: The Cleveland Indians lost the first two of this four-game series against the Houston Astros but held on last night for a 6-5 win. Cleveland now looks to close out this series with another win and cap its 10-game homestand with a 7-3 mark. The 80-58 Indians lead the AL Central by 5 1/2 games, while Houston's loss leaves them at 74-65, two games back of the second wild card spot, in a four-way battle for the final spot with the Orioles (who currently own that No. 2 spot at 76-63), as well as the 75-64 Tigers and 73-65 Yankees.

The pitching matchup: David Paulino will make his major league debut for the Astros in Thursday afternoon's game, opposed by the Indians' Trevor Bauer (10-6, 3.70 ERA). Paulino is ranked as the No. 4 prospect in the Houston organization and No.76 in all of baseball according to MLB.com. He pitched at three levels this year (Class-A, Double-A and Triple-A), going 5-4 with a 2.00 ERA in a combined 20 appearances (including 15 starts). He allowed a modest 72 hits over 90 innings with a KW ratio 106-19. Cleveland's Bauer has become a mainstay in the rotation after starting the season in the bullpen. He checks in at 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA over his last six starts (Indians are 5-1), while holding opposing batters to a .215 batting average.

The pick: Paulino's major-league debut (he's filling in for 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, out with shoulder inflammation), comes against a brutally tough opponent. The Indians are 46-25 at home in 2016, averaging a ‘healthy 5.68 RPG. What's more, Paulino's mound opponent (Trevor Bauer) is a perfect 4-0 In four career starts against the Astros, posting an 0.67 ERA and has 36 Ks in 27 innings or work. Indians are an 8* play.