The Buccaneers are at home and facing the Saints, a team that has dominated Brady since his arrival in Tampa. It is a critical game, but neither team seems to be playing with much success lately. The Bucs have averaged just 18 points a game all season, a far cry from their heyday. The Saints offense managed a goose egg last week, but did hold a tough 49'ers offense to just 13 points. Both defenses have limited the opposition to just 17 points in their last three games.

Tampa, at 32nd in most rush categories, will do anything other than run the ball, despite the success they had against the Seahawks. The Saints will run but appear to be spinning their wheels for the last 3 weeks, managing just 3 yards a carry, 60 yards a game, and no points at all from the run. New Orleans' pass attack under Dalton has been consistently very average, with nothing standing out other than too many picks, sacks and fumbles.

Brady has been accurate, well protected until last week, but playing small ball all season, with the 26th (and sinking) ranked yards per completion figures in the league. With Wirfs out and the usual Saints strategy for Brady of "go straight at him", he may just sully his uniform this week.

The Buccaneers beat the Saints earlier in the season in New Orleans, but the Saints have owned the Bucs in the regular season when facing them on the road. I think the safest outcome this week is in the total. Look for both defenses to star against a pair of struggling offenses, and wager on the under.