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(NFL) Buffalo vs. Seattle, 11/07/2016 3:30 PM, Score: 25 - 31
Point Spread: -7.00 | 104.00 Seattle (Home)
Result: Loss
The set-up: The 4-2-1 Seattle Seahawks host the 4-4 Buffalo Bills, as both teams are coming off sub-par efforts in their two most recent games. Seattle tied the Cardinals 6-6 in Week 7, then lost 25-20 at New Orleans in Week 8. Meanwhile, the Bills have followed a four-game winning streak in Weeks 3 through 6 by losing 28-25 at Miami and then 41-25 at home to the Patriots. Seattle is in much better playoff position than Buffalo though, as no other NFC West team owns a winning record through Week 9, while the Bills are stuck in the AFC East, tied with the 4-4 Dolphins and seemingly ‘light years' behind the 7-1 Patriots (on a bye this week).

Buffalo: The Tyrod Taylor-led passing offense ranks dead-last in the NFL at 179.4 YPG, although Taylor has thrown nine TDs and just two INTs. However, the LeSean McCoy-led (598 yards on 5.3 YPC & 6 TDs) rushing game is ranked second overall in at 154.1 YPG (5.5 YPC). The good new is that McCoy has been upgraded to probable (hamstring) and through it all, the Bills average 26.5 PPG, which ranks eighth. Rex Ryan is known as a defensive coach but this year's Buffalo defense is a middle-of-the-pack unit, allowing 21.5 PPG (14th) on 360.2 YPG (16th).

Seattle: The Seahawks rank 29th in points per game (18.7) and 23rd in total offense (339.9 YPG) after consecutive sub-par efforts on the road in Phoenix and New Orleans. Seattle has scored just one offensive TD in its last nine quarters and QB Russell Wilson has only five TD passes on the season, including ZERO in his last three games in 108 attempts. The silver lining is, he's had just one ‘pick' during that span, as well. Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense is again one of the top units in the NFL, ranking second in scoring defense (15.4 PPG) and third in total defense (319.4 YPG).

The pick: The Seahawks are a different ‘animal' at CenturyLink Field and are 3-0 SU there in 2016 and going back to the start of Wilson's career in 2012, have gone 30-5 SU in his regular season home starts. His TD-to-INT may be only 2-to-1 at home so far this season but over his 35 regular season home starts, it's an impressive 56-16! Yes, there is a margin to cover here but Seattle is a 10* play.