The set-up: Dan Quinn's first season as the Falcons' head coach saw Atlanta open the year 5-0 but the Falcons finished 3-8 to go 8-8. The Falcons lost 31-24 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 1 of the 2016 season but they followed with FOUR straight wins, including starting October with back-to-back wins over last year's Super Bowl teams, Carolina and Denver. However, Atlanta is now off a pair of mentally challenging defeats. First was a two-point loss at Seattle, then an OT loss at home to San Diego last week, caused in part by Quinn failing to go for it on fourth down on his side of midfield in the extra period. The Packers moved to 4-2 by beating the Bears 26-10 on a Thursday night Week 7 contest, as Aaron Rodgers tossed three TD passes and topped 300 yards (326) for the first time this season and for just the second time in his last 16 games, including two postseason games last year. Green Bay got good news when the Vikings lost last Sunday in Philadelphia, dropping Minnesota to 5-1.

Green Bay: The Packers offense found life in that game with Chicago, turning to a quick-hitting passing game, as Rodgers set a team record by completing 39 passes (three different players caught at least 10 ). It's hard to fathom that a Green Bay offense led by Rodgers ranks just 20th in passing yards (239.3 per) but that's the case plus Green Bay's run game contributes only 104.8 YPG. Green Bay's defense has been very solid, leading the NFL in rushing yards allowed (71.8 YPG), ranking seventh in total defense (314.0 YPG) and 11th in scoring (20.5 PPG).

Atlanta: Matt Ryan (67.6%, 319.0 YPG and a 16-4 ratio) leads the NFL's top team in total offense (433.6 YPG), as well as its top scoring unit (32.7 PPG). Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 200 yards in a league-record 46 consecutive games and has a superb QB rating of 113.6. WR Julio Jones (40 catches with a 20.8 YPC average) is on pace for 1,900 receiving yards. RB Devonta Freeman (team-leading 508 yards rushing) has recorded at least 100 yards from scrimmage in three of his last five games and likely will have the backfield to himself with second-year back Tevin Coleman nursing an ailing hamstring. But oh that defense! Rodgers will face Atlanta's 31st-ranked pass D (294.3 YPG) and a team which is allowing 28.4 PPG, which ranks 27th.

The pick: Atlanta has to be nervous that after another strong start (4-1), the team needs a win here just to avoid falling back to .500 (remember last year's collapse!). As for the Packers, they come in well-rested off a Thursday game in Week 7 and while they can't control the ball by running it, they can by piling up first downs with Rodgers connecting on quick-hitting throws. This is the highest over/under on the board in Week 8 and the 10* play is on the Under.