Stephen Nover's NBA Wednesday Totals Dominator - 73% NBA Totals Run
(NBA) New Orleans vs. Indiana, 02/28/2024 7:30 PM, Score: 114 - 123
Total: 239.00 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
It's easy to see why this total is as high as it is. The Pacers are the No. 1 scoring team in the league and have a bottom-three defense. The Pelicans have an above average offense and several big-time scorers.

But I'm going Under based on several factors.

The Pelicans have even a better defense than offense ranking in the top eight. They also are the No. 1 defensive team when it comes to guarding the 3-pointer. That's huge against the Pacers. If you toss out their game against the Wizards, the Pelicans have allowed an average of only 98 points in their last six games.

The Pacers, for all of their high-scoring, have gone Under in five of their past seven games. Pacers coach Rick Carlisle is really going to be stressing transition defense to his team after Indiana lost, 130-122, at home to the Raptors two days ago.

Indiana may catch a break if CJ McCollum has to miss his third straight game because of a sprained left ankle. He's New Orleans' third-leading scorer at 18.8 points a game.

Both teams carry a fatigue factor. The Pelicans are playing without rest after beating the Knicks last night, while this is Indiana's third game in four days. The Under has cashed three of the past four times when the Pelicans have played without rest.

Note, too, the same two teams meet Friday in New Orleans. So neither team may want to show all of their tricks.