PREMIUM
AAA's 3-Game PRO HOOPS PASS - +$41K NBA RUN!
(NBA) Miami vs. Toronto,
01/22/2016 3:00 PM, Score: 81 - 101
Point Spread: 9.50 | -102.00 Miami (Away)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: 9.50 | -102.00 Miami (Away)
Result: Loss
This is an 8* play on the Miami Heat.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
On paper: This one looks like a mismatch, the Raptors are on the verge of their longest win streak in nearly 14 years, while the Heat have fallen on hard times because of injury. But that's why there's a point-spread and in our professional opinion, this is indeed too much to be giving up to the desperate visiting side which has lost six of its last seven. Conversely, the Raptors have won six in a row after a 22-point loss to the Cavaliers on January 4th. We always like to say that desperation breeds motivation and that winning leads to complacency at some point and with the Clippers and Washington on deck next for the home side, we find it hard to imagine the Raptors in some small way not getting caught looking ahead to those more difficult contests.
ATS statistics: Note that Miami is 4-1 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 7-5 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Toronto is just 5-6 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU victories.
The bottom line: Despite the injuries, we feel there are many other factors combining to work in favor of MIAMI today and look for it to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel to be a very healthy spread afforded to it.
AAA Sports
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
On paper: This one looks like a mismatch, the Raptors are on the verge of their longest win streak in nearly 14 years, while the Heat have fallen on hard times because of injury. But that's why there's a point-spread and in our professional opinion, this is indeed too much to be giving up to the desperate visiting side which has lost six of its last seven. Conversely, the Raptors have won six in a row after a 22-point loss to the Cavaliers on January 4th. We always like to say that desperation breeds motivation and that winning leads to complacency at some point and with the Clippers and Washington on deck next for the home side, we find it hard to imagine the Raptors in some small way not getting caught looking ahead to those more difficult contests.
ATS statistics: Note that Miami is 4-1 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 7-5 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Toronto is just 5-6 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU victories.
The bottom line: Despite the injuries, we feel there are many other factors combining to work in favor of MIAMI today and look for it to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel to be a very healthy spread afforded to it.
AAA Sports
