PREMIUM
AAA's 3-Game PRO HOOPS PASS - +$41K NBA RUN!
(NBA) Milwaukee vs. Houston,
01/22/2016 3:00 PM, Score: 98 - 102
Point Spread: -3.00 | -105.00 Houston (Home)
Result: Win
Point Spread: -3.00 | -105.00 Houston (Home)
Result: Win
This is an 8* play on the Houston Rockets.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Desperation breeds motivation: The Rockets are just 22-22 on the year and will be playing this one without big man Dwight Howard. They've also lost three of their last four. Most recently Houston fell 123-114 to the Pistons, despite 33 points, a career-high 17 boards, to go along with 14 assists from James Harden. Note though that the Rockets are 36-23 without Howard in the lineup since 2013/14: "We have to figure it out," Harden said. "We've been through this situation before. Guys are going to have the opportunity to step up and play extra minutes, so just take advantage of it. Every go on this roster is preparing themselves for a situation like this."
Good news on injury front: Dwight is down, but Patrick Beverly is expected back for the home side, he's missed three of the last five.
Harden: The Rockets' sharp-shooter is hitting 52.1 percent in 11 career games vs. Milwaukee.
Classic letdown/look-ahead spot: After three straight victories at home against the Eastern Conference, the Bucks now hit the road for a late night Western conference affair, there's no question that this one screams letdown spot for the visitors. And with a game tomorrow night in New Orleans against "The Brow," it's not too hard to imagine the Bucks in some small way getting caught looking ahead to that one.
ATS statistics: Note that Milwaukee is just 2-5 ATS after a win by ten points or more this season; it's also a brutal 4-19 ATS in its last 23 after allowing 85 points or less and only 2-8 ATS in its last ten after three or more consecutive SU victories. And note that Houston is 9-6 ATS this season after a non-conference game.
The bottom line: We love the hungry home side to defend its floor and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the ROCKETS.
AAA Sports
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Desperation breeds motivation: The Rockets are just 22-22 on the year and will be playing this one without big man Dwight Howard. They've also lost three of their last four. Most recently Houston fell 123-114 to the Pistons, despite 33 points, a career-high 17 boards, to go along with 14 assists from James Harden. Note though that the Rockets are 36-23 without Howard in the lineup since 2013/14: "We have to figure it out," Harden said. "We've been through this situation before. Guys are going to have the opportunity to step up and play extra minutes, so just take advantage of it. Every go on this roster is preparing themselves for a situation like this."
Good news on injury front: Dwight is down, but Patrick Beverly is expected back for the home side, he's missed three of the last five.
Harden: The Rockets' sharp-shooter is hitting 52.1 percent in 11 career games vs. Milwaukee.
Classic letdown/look-ahead spot: After three straight victories at home against the Eastern Conference, the Bucks now hit the road for a late night Western conference affair, there's no question that this one screams letdown spot for the visitors. And with a game tomorrow night in New Orleans against "The Brow," it's not too hard to imagine the Bucks in some small way getting caught looking ahead to that one.
ATS statistics: Note that Milwaukee is just 2-5 ATS after a win by ten points or more this season; it's also a brutal 4-19 ATS in its last 23 after allowing 85 points or less and only 2-8 ATS in its last ten after three or more consecutive SU victories. And note that Houston is 9-6 ATS this season after a non-conference game.
The bottom line: We love the hungry home side to defend its floor and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the ROCKETS.
AAA Sports
