Total: 8.50 | -105.00 Under
Tampa broke a three game slide with a 14-0 win over the Yanks, and it's since gone on to win both games here at home against Boston so far as well. All three games have flown well OVER the number, but I say the finale here finally sets up as a DUEL.
Boston has lost four in a row. It's seen the total go OVER in three straight as well, as it fell 13-1 at home to the Jays just before leaving for this series.
The Red Sox go with Nick Pivetta, who is 8-4 with a 4.51 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs over five innings in a no-decision to Toronto last week. Pivetta owns a sharp 120:48 K:BB this season. Clearly, he hasn't been at his best of the last month, but he's consistently been at his best on the road, going 3-2 with a 5.82 ERA at home, and 5-2 with a 3.22 ERA on the road.
Shane McClanahan is 4-4 with a 3.93 ERA for the Rays, he is off a loss to the Yanks despite allowing three runs and striking out six over seven innings. Over his last 32 innings of work he's posted a solid 3.34 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 38:12 K:BB.
Finally, note that Boston has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.
This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER.
Good luck, NP