ASA top play on 10* UNDER 144.5 Arkansas Little Rock vs. Duquesne, Monday 4PM ET

A team we will have our eyes on early in the season will be Duquesne. They return a ton of talent (7 of top 8 scorers) to a team that finished 21-9 SU last season but this is their first game of the season while UALR has two games under their belts so we aren’t interested in betting a side here.

What we do like here is a lower scoring game with two very deliberate teams in terms of pace of play. Last season the Dukes ranked 244 in terms of average possession length as it took them on average 17.9 seconds to take a shot. They had an adjusted tempo of 67.8 which ranked 211th. They protected the rim with a top 10 ranking in block percentage and defended the 3-point line extremely well allowing 30.1% from beyond the arc.

Arkansas Little Rock is 1-1 on the season and put up 70 and 71 points respectively in their two games. They shot better than expected in both and only attempted 51 and 48 field goal attempts in both games. That ties into the fact they only attempted 53 field goals per game last season which ranks 333 out of 353 schools. Last season UALR had a decent overall offensive efficiency rating but those lofty numbers came because of playing in the Sun Belt, which typically plays fast, and isn’t known for their defense.

According to our math models this game projects out to just 134 total points being scored. The bet here is UNDER.