ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles, Monday at 7:35 PM ET

Touki Toussaint gets the start for the Braves here. He is coming back from being optioned to Atlanta's alternate training site. That was due to all of his struggles and we don't expect Toussaint to magically bounce back as a result. The fact is Toussaint went 4-0 last season but mostly worked out of the bullpen and that unblemished record did have a blemish on it in the form of a 5.62 ERA in his 24 appearances (1 start). This season he has an even worse 7.98 ERA and that includes a 6.11 ERA over his 4 starts. Historically Toussaint has been much worse on the road in comparison to at home so one could legitimately question why the Braves are bringing him back for a road start instead of a home outing. We question it too and, per our computer math model, projections are showing that he will get crushed tonight. Computer math model projections also are anticipating a rough night for Orioles starter Jorge Lopez in this one. He is facing a red hot Braves lineup that continues to pile up the runs and scored 8 in their win at Washington yesterday. Lopez has a 6.38 ERA this season and has been consistent but not in a good way. The fact is that Lopez is trending very close to his career major league numbers and this is a guy who is 8-15 with a 5.95 ERA in his 66 MLB appearances (30 starts). We look for the Braves to stay red hot at the plate and pound him and this one gets crazy in a hurry. We get some line value because there will be a little breeze blowing in and that is part of the reason this total made an early drop from a 10.5 to a 10 and we won't hesitate in taking advantage of the line move. Bet the OVER in Baltimore in early evening action Monday.