The Twins Jose Berrios is known for dominating in his home starts. Even though he took the loss against the Indians last week at Target Field, he allowed just 3 hits in 5 innings and looked very strong. He went 25-9 at home the past 3 seasons combined. Per the simulation report, Berrios is going to dominate a Pirates lineup that has very little familiarity with him. The Pirates start Joe Musgrove here. Though the Twins lineup has been a little quieter of late they still could prove to be a tough match-up for Musgrove. That's because they have a lot of power and Musgrove has allowed multiple homers in each of his first two starts. This one is set up to be a home rout for the Twins which is why they are such a high-priced favorite on the money line. The value here is on the run line as you can get the Twins at a pick'em price (-110) by laying the 1.5 runs. Play MINNESOTA Run Line -1.5 -110