MIT Simulator - NFL Sunday Denver vs New England Winner
MIT Simulator Score - Patriots 22.29, Broncos 22.18 - Projected Margin of Victory: 0.11 - Current Line: 8 - Variance to Line: 7.89 - MIT Simulator shows Edge Factor of 7.89 points. Value in excess of a touchdown! Projected box-score shows New England passing edge of 42.81 yards in excess of Denver passing total. However, the box-score also reflects Broncos rushing edge of 34.72 yards in excess of Patriots rushing yardage total. Key factors noted: Broncos defense is sure to bring "A game" after getting embarrassed at Philadelphia last week in a 51-23 loss. The point total was a little deceiving as Denver actually allowed only 419 yards. The Broncos average yardage allowed per game is still strong at 280.8 yards per game. The Patriots defense has been far worse as they have allowed more yardage than that just in passing yards alone with 295.5 per game. The Broncos did lose their most recent home game but actually won the yardage in that one by nearly 150 yards over the Giants. In fact the yardage totals don't look too bad overall in Denver's last 4 games and yet the final scores (all losses) were ugly. That has led to a big number here for the Broncos as a home dog and the result is value. The Patriots are off of their bye week but are only 5-10 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. Denver also lost at home to New England 16 to 3 last season after winning each of the prior two meetings. Payback is on their minds and 5 of the Patriots last 6 games have been decided by a single possession. The result is line value here with the big dog. MIT Simulator composite forecast equating to a very tight game with Patriots by 0.11 points. Play: DENVER