7* San Diego (4:10 ET): The Phillies have had a great month (17-6) but are still well behind the Padres (6.5 games) in the NL Wild Card race, even after taking two of the first three games in this series. The key for today’s finale is that San Diego will have Yu Darvish on the mound and he’s not only been filthy of late overall (0.82 ERA, 0.591 WHIP L3 starts), but all season here at home (1.34 ERA, 0.645 WHIP in six starts). The Phillies’ offense has certainly been regressing over the last week or so (scored four runs or less in six of the last seven games) and I don’t think their starter for Sunday (Kyle Gibson) is capable of out-dueling Darvish in this spot.

Darvish has had three subpar outings this season where he allowed five or more runs. All were on the road. He’s allowed no more than 3 ER in any of the other 10 starts. Last time out, Darvish went seven innings against Arizona and allowed just one run on four hits. In his last 22 IP, he’s allowed just 11 hits and two walks. Something else to consider is that, as a team, the Padres haven’t been giving up many runs at home this year. They allow just 3.3 per game with visitors at Petco Park hitting only .205. Only the Yankees and Astros are allowing fewer runs at home this season.

Gibson has a 5.40 ERA and and 1.567 WHIP on the road this season where he’s yet to win a single decision in six tries. Gibson’s last start came on the road (at Texas) and there he gave up a pair of home runs as the Phils lost 7-0 to the Rangers. Earlier in the season (May 19th), Gibson faced off with Darvish (in Philly) and came out on the losing end of a 2-0 decision. Darvish went seven innings As a home favorite of -125 to -175, the Padres have won 67% of the time over the last three seasons. 7* San Diego