10* Run Line Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m backing the White Sox at -1.5. This play may come as a tad bit of a surprise, given my overall outlook on the White Sox. At least based on their run differential, currently -52, the team should have a worse won-loss record. They are one of just three times in all of MLB to have exceeded their Pythagorean win expectation by more than three games. But today the White Sox are facing the prospect of getting swept at home, in a four-game series, by Baltimore. I just don’t see that happening. Lay the -1.5.

The main reason I like the White Sox on Sunday is that they have Dylan Cease starting. The team is 10-4 this season with him on the mound and he’s been one of the better pitchers in the American League thus far. Over his last five starts, Cease hasn’t allowed a single earned run (!), although that’s a tad bit misleading as he gave up six unearned runs when he faced the Dodgers on June 9th. But that’s been the exception, not the rule, as Cease has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 14 outings. I know that the team has lost four in a row and has a lengthy injury list, but getting swept at home in a four-game series just isn’t very common. Cease is the difference maker.

Sweeping a four-game series on the road is pretty rare and especially when the visiting team is someone like Baltimore, who is doomed to another last place finish this year in the AL East. FanGraphs has the Orioles projected to win just 34 more games the rest of the season, tied with Oakland for fewest in all of MLB. Jordan Lyles gets the starting nod for Sunday and just doesn’t seem capable of matching Cease. Lyles has struggled on the road all season (6.80 ERA, 1.632 WHIP) and the team is just 1-4 his L5 starts overall. 10* Run line Chi White Sox (-1.5)