7* Run Line Houston (1:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Astros +1.5. The Astros won last night, 3-1, as a slight underdog. That was after they should have won Thursday’s opener. They led that game 6-3 heading into the bottom of the ninth, when Aaron Judge was able to win it for the Pinstripes. Houston finished with an 11-6 edge in hits, however. Yes, this is the feared Yankees we’re fading (at home), but it’s a tremendous value on the Astros, who are the second best team in the American League and would have cashed on the RL both games in the series. Take the +1.5.

Don’t be fooled by Cristian Javier’s 5-4 TSR or seemingly mediocre ERA & WHIP. Javier has allowed 2 ER or less in seven of nine starts this season and has an xBA (expected batting average allowed) of .204. The Yankees have only 11 hits in this series so far and actually haven’t topped seven hits in any of their last five games. With Javier on the mound, the Astros are absolutely capable of being the first team to hand the Yanks B2B losses this month.

Houston is also 24-15 on the road this season and 16-8 in day games. They’ll face Gerrit Cole on Saturday. Cole is a tough matchup and was spectacular his last time out. But he’s going against a tough lineup here. Cole has been roughed up a couple of times in 2022, including when he gave up seven runs in just 2 ⅓ innings to the Twins earlier this month. Another thing that must be considered is the Astros have the edge in the bullpen in this matchup. All things considered, having an extra 1.5 runs “in our back pocket” is the right way to play this matchup. 7* Run Line Houston (+1.5)