8* Philadelphia (9:40 ET): San Diego was probably feeling pretty good about themselves coming into last night’s series opener with the Phillies. After all, the Padres had just swept the D’backs here at home earlier in the week and are neck and neck with the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. But they were beaten on Thursday, 6-2, and now have to go up against Aaron Nola, who has been one the best pitchers in all of baseball over the last month. Because of the big edge in starting pitching here, I’m backing the Phillies as they should continue what has been a tremendous June (16-5 overall).

Nola has been red hot. Over his L5 starts, he has a 5-0 team start record and has allowed only eight runs total in 37 ⅓ IP. What’s even more impressive about that is five of those eight runs surrendered came in one game. The other four starts have seen him go 31 ⅓ innings and give up only three runs total! Last time out, it was eight shutout innings at Washington. Nola has a 0.78 ERA and 0.652 WHIP in his L3 starts and is facing a San Diego lineup that is hitting just .228 at home (only 3.9 rpg) and now without Manny Machado.

The Phillies beat Joe Musgrove last night, becoming the first team to do so in 2022. They should have a much easier time against Mackenzie Gore this evening. Gore has a 10.22 ERA and 2.19 WHIP over his last three starts, just brutal numbers, and he’s allowed 14 runs in his last 6 ⅓ innings of work. Now he did just have to pitch at Coors Field in his last start where he allowed three home runs. But I don’t think he’ll be able to slow down a Phillies lineup that is averaging 5.2 rpg on the road this year. I absolutely love Nola in this price range. 8* Philadelphia