10* Tampa Bay (10:10 ET): The Rays have now dropped two straight in Seattle and four straight overall. That’s odd, considering how they lead the AL East and are a top five team in my own personal power ratings. I can’t see them getting swept by a subpar Mariners team that has a -51 YTD run differential, yet is somehow staying “afloat” with a .500 record. Tampa Bay is typically one of the better road teams in all of baseball and I’m counting on them getting the job done today against what I feel is a clearly inferior foe.

Just to “back up” a bit, Thursday’s series opener saw Seattle rally for two run in the bottom of the ninth to take the game 6-5. That rally carried right over into yday where the M’s batted around in a four-run 1st inning. That hot start essentially decided the game, which ended up being a 5-1 final. The Rays offense really couldn’t get anything going against Yusei Kikuchi, but I see them being a lot more productive at the plate tonight vs. Logan Gilbert, who has a 6.32 ERA at home this season for the Mariners. Yes, Gilbert has a 4-0 TSR his L4 starts. But here he’s facing a team that going into yday was averaging a MLB-high 5.8 rpg on the road.

Seattle’s hitters were very successful against the shift yesterday, which felt a bit lucky. Nine of the M’s 13 hits went to the opposite side of the field. Said Rays skipper Kevin Cash, “We probably got beat around by the shift about as much as I can recall in a long time.” I do not think that is going to happen again. First off, the Mariners’ team batting average at home this year is a woeful .203. Secondly, the Rays starter for Saturday (Josh Fleming) has a 0.953 WHIP in his five previous starts this season. Make no mistake about it, the Rays are the better team here. 10* Tampa Bay