10* Aston Villa (1:00 ET): I know Burnley has won two straight matches, one of them being of a rather historic nature, but this price on Aston Villa seems quite generous given where both sides currently sit in the table. The Clarets remain 15th even after becoming the first Premier League visitors to defeat Liverpool at Anfield since April of 2017. That shocking 1-0 win occurred last Thursday with the lone goal scored on a penalty in the 83rd minute. But neither that, nor the fact it was followed by a 3-0 win over Fulham in the FA Cup over the weekend changes our read on this side, which is closer to relegation than their 8th place opponents Wednesday.

Aston Villa was a solid 2-0 winner for me on Saturday as they took care of Newcastle United in a rescheduled affair. This is the most underrated side in the Premier League right now, at least in my eyes. The fact they are only 8th in the table is somewhat misleading when you consider they’ve played two fewer matches than seventh place West Ham United. COVID-19 put a halt to their campaign for nearly two weeks, but Aston Villa should be feeling good about itself right now considering their YTD goal differential (+13) places them right among the EPL’s best. I feel we are likely to see Villa make a charge up the table.

Coming off the shocking win over Liverpool and then advancing to the 5th round of the FA Cup, Burnley might very well be overconfident heading into this fixture. They did play to a scoreless draw with AV back in December, but expect the visitors to score this time. Meanwhile, AV has conceded the third fewest times in the entire Premier League while Burnley’s 10 goals are tied for a league low. Europa League qualification is a real possibility for AV this season and I expect them to continue their chase by earning the full three points here. 10* Aston Villa