10* Arkansas (9:00 ET): After starting the season 8-0, Arkansas has struggled, losing four of its last five games. But tonight the Razorbacks are matched up against a team they’ve already beaten once this year and that win came on the road with little difficulty. Now they welcome Auburn to Fayetteville where their WL record is still 9-1 SU + they are averaging 88.7 PPG. Auburn has struggled on the road, not just this season (where they are 1-3 SU), but the L3 seasons as they’ve gone 7-17 ATS. Lay the points here.

I remember the first Arkansas-Auburn matchup well as I won by laying the points with Arkansas. The game went down on December 30th and featured plenty of offense with the Hogs winning by a final score of 97-85. Key for me is that they were laying 3.5 points in that one, now they’re laying only slightly more at home. Thus, I’m seeing plenty of value here given how that first game played out. Auburn actually shot 51.9% in the first meeting, including 15 of 27 on three-pointers, yet still lost by double digits at home!

The Tigers are quite unlikely to match those shooting percentages tonight. They are shooting just 28.4% on the road this season from three-point range. Even with red-hot shooting, they couldn’t beat Arkansas at home. Therefore, I just don’t see much of a path to victory this time. Arkansas has gone cold in its L5 games (39.2 FG%), but given their YTD scoring average (12th in the country!) should bounce back. They shot nearly 50% from the field in the 1st meeting and also had an edge at the FT line, making 77% compared to 58% for Auburn. Those free throw percentages are right in line with the respective season averages. Off a horrible game vs. Alabama, this is a prime “buy low” spot for the Razorbacks, who are holding opponents to just 64.3 PPG in Fayetteville. 10* Arkansas