10* Under Rays/Dodgers (8:09 ET): The Under hit in all but one of the seven games in the ALCS (Game 6 when I had the Over!). The Rays only hit .201 for the series against the Astros, averaging 3.6 runs per game. But an exemplary pitching staff combined to allow just 3.1 rpg. One key thing that I noticed over the course of the ALCS (and many others have certainly noticed!) is that TB doesn’t score much when they’re not hitting home runs. Other than Randy Arozarena, the Rays hit a collective .183 in the ALCS.

The Dodgers scored the most runs in baseball during the regular season. Over the course of the NLCS they scored 39 runs, but that number is very misleading as they had one game w/ 15, 11 of those coming in one inning. The Rays’ pitching staff, with a very solid bullpen, is very comparable to Atlanta. Starters aren’t asked to go very long. Game 1 starter Tyler Glasnow has gone six innings twice, the longest outings by any Rays starter this postseason. Glasnow’s ERA is up over his L3 starts, but he generally doesn’t put many runners on base. He also had a 12-0 TSR in 12 starts before losing his lone LCS start.

The Dodgers were held to 4 runs or fewer in 4 of the 7 NLCS games. The Rays scored more than 4 in only one ALCS game. Clayton Kershaw, who was chased in his only NLCS start, is getting the Game 1 nod and we all know his career postseason numbers aren’t great. But despite the Dodgers hitting lots of homers in the NLCS, Globe Life Field has been pretty “pitcher friendly” all season. The Rays didn’t play here during the regular season. Kershaw has a 2.44 ERA and 0.866 WHIP in 13 starts. He should be fine. Don’t see many runs being scored in Game 1. 10* Under Rays/Dodgers