NFL 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +4 - The Ravens are off a disappointing OT loss at Las Vegas on Monday Night. For all intents and purposes, their season is now over. I am being sarcastic of course but I am simply pointing out public perception here as this line has risen on the Chiefs from -2.5 point favorites to being as high as -4.5 point favorites. Keep in mind Kansas City went 14-2 SU last season but only covered 6 of the 16 games. There is a lot of value here in the home dog in this one. Baltimore is off a road loss and now back home and, keep in mind, they got the cash in 10 of their 16 games last season. KC, of course, is a great team but the public is so enamored with them that it often drives their lines too high. I strongly believe that will prove to be the case again here. Last year Mahomes outplayed Jackson and the Chiefs got a dominating road win at Baltimore last September. So everyone expects this game to be the same. The KC defense did not look good at all last week and gave up substantial yardage to the Browns both through the air and on the ground. Keep in mind, when a home dog can get their ground game going they are particularly dangerous. The Chiefs defense was at home last week and still did not look good. They are generally known for being tougher at home but that was not the case last week. That spells trouble as they now take to the road to face a Ravens team that is angry off a loss plus hell-bent on revenge from last season's home loss to these Chiefs. Keep in mind, Ravens were on a 6-0 ATS run prior to losing to the Raiders last week. Look for them to get back into the SU win column here but I will gladly grab the points as added insurance here as well. 10* BALTMORE +4