Total of the Month NFL 10*
(NFL) New Orleans vs. Denver, 11/29/2020 4:05 PM, Score: 31 - 3
Total: 35.50 | -110.00 Over
Result: Loss
Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:05 ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian. That means when situations like this come up you know I'll be taking a look and, if I like the value going against the move, I am all over it. That is most definitely the case here. This total opened up around 45.5 and now is as low as 35.5 points. It is because the Broncos QB situation is a complete mess as all the QBs on their roster are out due to Covid and related contact tracing. That said, they have only a pair of options at QB as Hinton and Freeman would be the guys. Hinton started out as a QB at Wake Forest before converting to RB. Freeman would be more of a wildcat QB. Either way, I still love the value with this total because Denver most definitely will have some trick plays dialed up here and they catch the Saints defense off a dominating divisional win. On the road and after crushing the rival Falcons, don't be surprised if the New Orleans defense is a little flat here. Also, the weather is going to be very nice in Denver with light winds and clear skies and temperatures possibly reaching into the 40s. Keep in mind, long field goals have a better chance in the thin air of Denver when the weather is like this. I just feel this total is way too low. I know the Broncos defense had a strong game last week but Taysom Hill and the Saints offense are a much better combo than the over-rated Dolphins team that Denver just faced. Also, prior to holding Miami to just 13 points, the Broncos allowed at least 26 points in 7 of last 8 games including an average of 36 points in their last 4 games. Keep in mind that is roughly what the total is on this game for BOTH teams combined and I certainly do expect the Broncos to score some points. They will run some trick plays to keep the defense off balance and, again, you don't have to move the ball a whole lot to get into field goal range in Denver! Broncos kicker Brandon McManus is having a fantastic season as he has made 20 of 21 field goals this season including 14 of 15 from 40+ yards (6 of 7 from 50+ yards). The Broncos ran for nearly 200 yards last week and will find a way to move the ball some and get some points in this game but the Saints offense should light them up too. After all, why do you think New Orleans is favored by 15 points here? Yes that has to do with Broncos problems at QB for this one but also this Saints team can put up some points even without Drew Brees under center. Hill was 18 of 23 for 233 yards passing last week plus ran for 2 touchdowns. Considering all the factors as noted above, there is simply phenomenal line value here with this low total. Flat spot for the Saints defense in a divisional sandwich and the Broncos defense feeling a little too good about themselves after dominating Miami last week plus the Denver D has the hated division rival Chiefs on deck. Neither defense will be on top of its game here in my opinion and we have a very low total to work with in nice weather conditions. I will take it. 10* OVER the total in Denver