The Giants, at home to a commanding Washington team, have fallen on harder times lately. Their fine running back Barkley hasn't been nearly as dynamic lately and the rush offense has dropped by 30 yards a game L3. This is a huge concern in a rush-first offense. Where the Giants real trouble lies is on defense, with significant decreases in effectiveness in numerous areas; points allowed, and red zone defense to name just 2 of many. As much as the Giants' defense has struggled, the Commanders' has surged. They've seen a drop in points-allowed from 19 to 14, and opposing passer rating drop from 90 to 70, comparing last three games to season average. The Commanders' most impressive stat in their recent surge is their ability to control games through time of possession. and I believe this will continue on Sunday. Their rush game, from a variety of sources, may not be flashy but they consistently move the sticks enough to maintain possession. Heinicke doesn't thrill anyone as a passer, but has been very well protected in recent games, and effective as a game manager. The Commanders face a poor rush defense on Sunday; the Giants are just 26th and struggling against the run. They've allowed significantly more pass yards lately and in spite of a blitz-heavy pass defense, they are just 26th in sacks.
I've been riding the Commanders all through their recent success and am a huge believer in their continued success in week thirteen. It may be more of "winning by inches", but take the Commanders to win and cover again.