The set-up: This has been a very defensive series so far, but I think that changes finally here. The Lightning won 2-1 in Game 3, but note that the Isles have seen the total go "over" in eight of their last 12 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or less goals in.

The pick: These teams have two of the best goaltenders between the pipes, but the overall situation points to more of a wide-open affair. I expect the Islanders to go on the attack early and to push the pace from the opening face-off, until the final horn. As a result, look for this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* SEMI-FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Lightning/Islanders.